Is it Time to Think Seriously About Vehicle Ramming Attacks?

BRIAN MICHAEL JENKINS
Director
National Transportation Security Center, Mineta Transportation Institute
and BRUCE R. BUTTERWORTH
Senior Researcher
National Transportation Security Center

In the past six months, 15 vehicle ramming attacks and one ramming plot have been reported worldwide. These resulted in 71 fatalities—approximately twice the number of fatalities per average commercial airliner crash in 2024. Half of the recent vehicular assault fatalities occurred in one attack in China. The second deadliest attack occurred in New Orleans, LA, with 14 fatalities and 57 injuries. Seven of the most recent attacks were ideologically motivated; mental health issues were reported in four cases.

As part of the National Transportation Security Center, Mineta Transportation Institute, research on surface transportation security, we have been tracking vehicle ramming attacks for more than a decade. The descriptions of these attacks have come to be sadly familiar. An individual, propelled by political fanaticism, mental illness, or emotional crisis, accelerates their vehicle into people waiting at a bus stop, a crowd of revelers, parade watchers, tourists on a bridge, shoppers at a street market—or a gathering of school children—zigzagging their vehicle to kill as many as possible. In some cases, they emerge from the vehicle armed with a gun or machete to continue the assault until subdued or shot by police.

Ramming attacks occur wherever people gather. Transportation venues—bus and tram stops, train stations, public buses—are targets in some 14 percent of incidents.

It is not a new phenomenon. The first incident we could find occurred in 1964. The most recent attack occurred on May 1 of this year when a driver in Osaka, Japan, deliberately plowed his vehicle into a group of school children, swerving his vehicle to run over as many as possible. Mental disturbance (a description based upon reporting, not our diagnosis) accounts for most of the attacks and most of the fatalities.

Vehicle ramming attacks entered the terrorist playbook in the 1990s in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, but increased in the 2010s as terrorist organizations in the Middle East relied more on remote radicalization and recruitment to exhort terrorist attacks abroad. That meant more attacks by individuals with limited operational capabilities. As a result, we saw more primitive tactics with readily accessible weapons—shootings where guns were accessible, stabbings, and vehicle ramming attacks, which the online magazines of al Qaeda and Islamic State promote. European countries have noted a surge in knife assaults and vehicular rammings. They happen here, too.

Terrorists seek high body counts, and vehicle ramming attacks can cause far more casualties than stabbings. On July 14, 2016, a terrorist driving a rented truck drove through a crowd of people watching a fireworks display on Bastille Day in Nice, France, killing 86 people and injuring more than 400.

Islamist extremists carried out several vehicle ramming attacks in the United States. The first of these occurred in 2006 when an Iranian student, wanting to avenge the murder of Muslims after 9/11, ran down nine of his fellow students at the University of North Carolina. In 2017, a jihadist inspired by ISIS swerved his vehicle into a New York bike path, killing eight, before crashing into a school bus.

On January 1, 2025, an American-born army veteran drove his rented truck into a group celebrating New Years on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. It was the deadliest vehicle ramming attack in the United States. In most cases, there is little evidence of direct communications between homegrown jihadists and the group they claim to represent. In the New Orleans case, Iraqi authorities assisting in the investigation arrested a member of Islamic State’s foreign operations office who they allege was connected with the attack.

While Palestinians and jihadists of various nationalities account for a majority of the political attacks, other ideologies and political senitments also appear, including far-right as well as anti-Trump extremists, and members of the “incel” movement. In 2014, an incel member carried out a ramming and shooting attack in California, killing six. Another incel believer killed 10 in a 2018 ramming attack in Toronto, Canada.

The drivers in the attacks in Nice, France; New York, and New Orleans used rented trucks. Attacks involving rental vehicles are more lethal. Although they figure in only seven percent of the attacks in the developed countries, they account for more than 60 percent of all fatalities. Rental vehicles indicate prior planning; renters are also able to acquire larger vehicles.

The number of vehicle ramming attacks is growing. Most of these occur in the economically advanced countries: Europe, East Asia, and North America. Roughly half of them take place in the United States, where the volume of attacks and number of fatalities has increased.

The distribution of the attacks shows a contagion effect. Ramming attacks occur in clusters, which suggests a heightened threat level after a major incident.

There is growing awareness of the problem. In March, we briefed more than 70 police departments across the country in a TSA-sponsored webinar. And in April, we participated in a series of symposia addressing the topic organized by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health and Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences.

Earlier this year, Rep. Carlos Gimenez, chairman of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security, and Chairman Mark Green introduced the “Vehicular Terrorism Prevention and Mitigation Act,” directing DHS to conduct an assessment and analysis of the threat, and identify future potential threats arising from misuse of autonomous vehicles [drones on wheels?], advanced driver assistance system-equipped vehicles, and other advancements in automotive technologies. The bill also calls for identifying strategies and countermeasures, sharing information, and developing training programs. The proposed legislation clearly attempts to push preparedness ahead of the problem.

The challenge is daunting. Millions of people inhabit cities, along with millions of motor vehicles. Often they are only inches apart. In the U.S., more than 7,000 pedestrians die annually in deadly encounters with automobiles. We cannot redesign cities to separate people from vehicles, but we can track vehicular attacks to identify trends; deploy barriers to protect transit stops, pedestrianized areas, street markets, and other public assemblies; improve training; and explore new technologies.

Jenkins served on the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security. Butterworth is a former director of security operations at FAA.